DOST – PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #4
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION “#VickyPH”
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 PM, 18 December 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “#VickyPH” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER DAVAO ORIENTAL.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS #1) will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the tropical cyclone.
• Heavy rainfall: The combined effects of Tropical Depression VICKY and Tail-End of a Frontal System (Shear Line) will bring:
o Today: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Southern Leyte, Leyte, and Bohol. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, the southern portion of Quezon, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, and the rest of Visayas, Davao Region, and Northern Mindanao.
o Tomorrow: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Quezon, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over mainland Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and the rest of CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Visayas.
o Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged periods of rainfall, especially in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and in localities that received significant antecedent rainfall over the past couple of days or weeks. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings in their respective areas of responsibility while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue general flood advisories and river basin flood advisories/bulletins as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and the approaching tropical depression will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon, the seaboard of Aurora, the eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands, the seaboard of Camarines Norte, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, the eastern seaboard of Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands, the eastern seaboard of Sorsogon, the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar, and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar including Homonhon Island. Moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 4.0 m) will be experienced over the coastal waters of areas under TCWS #1. Sea travel is risky over these waters especially for small sea vessels.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “VICKY” is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Baganga-Caraga area in Davao Oriental between 2:00 to 5:00 PM today. After crossing Mindanao, the tropical depression is likely to emerge over the Bohol Sea tomorrow early morning, pass close Siquijor, and pass close or make another landfall over the southern portion of Negros Island. By tomorrow morning or afternoon, “VICKY” is likely to emerge over the Sulu Sea.
• Intensity: VICKY is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Philippine archipelago.
Location of eye/center: At 1:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “VICKY” was estimated based on all available data at 95 km East Northeast of Davao City(7.4°N, 126.7°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 60 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 80 km West of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental (9.3°N, 122.1°E)
• 48 Hour (Sunday morning):265 km Northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan (11.3°N, 116.9°E)
• 72 Hour (Monday morning): 165 km West Southwest of Kalayaan, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (10.4°N, 112.7°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS# 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
The northern and central portion of Palawan (Puerto Princesa City, Roxas, San Vicente, Dumaran, Araceli, Taytay, El Nido) including Calamian, Cuyo, and Cagayancillo Islands
Visayas
The southern portion of Leyte (Baybay City, Javier, Abuyog, Mahaplag, Inopacan, Hindang, Hilongos, Bato, Matalom, Palompon, Merida, Isabel), Southern Leyte, the central and southern portions of Cebu (Borbon, Tabuelan, Tuburan, Sogod, Catmon, Carmen, Asturias, Danao City, Compostela, Liloan, Consolacion, Mandaue City, Lapu-Lapu City, Cordoba, Balamban, Cebu City, Talisay City, Toledo City, Minglanilla, Naga City, Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Aloguinsan, Carcar, Barili, Sibonga, Dumanjug, Ronda, Alcantara, Moalboal, Argao, Dalaguete, Badian, Alegria, Alcoy, Boljoon, Oslob, Malabuyoc, Ginatilan, Samboan, Santander) including Camotes Islands, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, the central and southern portions of Iloilo (Ajuy, Barotac Viejo, San Enrique, San Rafael, Passi City, Bingawan, Calinog, Lambunao, Janiuay, Banate, Anilao, Dingle, Duenas, Badiangan, Barotac Nuevo, Zarraga, Pototan, Dumangas, Mina, New Lucena, Santa Barbara, Leganes, Iloilo City, Pavia, Cabatuan, Maasin, Alimodian, San Miguel, Leon, Oton, Tigbauan, Tubungan, Guimbal, Igbaras, Miagao, San Joaquin), and the southern portion of Antique (Valderrama, San Remigio, Sibalom, Hamtic, Tobias Fornier, Anini-Y, Bugasong, Laua-An, Patnongon, San Jose, Belison)
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, Davao City, the northern portion of Davao del Sur (Santa Cruz, Digos City, Bansalan, Magsaysay, Matanao, Hagonoy), Camiguin, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Cotabato City, North Cotabato, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and the northern portion of Zamboanga del Norte (Baliguian, Gutalac, Kalawit, Labason, Tampilisan, Liloy, Salug, Bacungan, Godod, Sindangan, Siayan, Jose Dalman, Manukan, Sergio Osmena Sr., Pres. Manuel A. Roxas, Katipunan, Dipolog City, Polanco, Pinan, Mutia, La Libertad, Dapitan City, Sibutad, Rizal)
Impacts of the wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
-MGB VI Issues a Landslide and Flood Advisory to all the local government units.
December 18, 2020 2 pm TDVicky